Traders flock to bets that Bitcoin will rise to above $100,000 by the end of 2024

Bitcoin options traders are piling into bullish bets that the digital asset will surge to record highs of $100,000 by December, algorithmic trading firm Wintermute said in a note on Monday.

Those options contracts only pay out if Bitcoin trades above that price by the end of 2024.

However, some traders bet cryptocurrency will climb to a new all-time high as early as the end of the month, with options that expire on April 26 “being sold over range highs” of between $74,000 and $80,000, according to Wintermute.

Investor confidence

Wintermute also noted that traders have grown cockier.

Since March 12, crypto traders have sought to protect themselves from losses by utilising so-called downside protection tools, Wintermute said.

That’s changed in the past few days as crypto markets rallied, with Bitcoin surging 4.4% to $72,300 over the 24 hours leading into Monday morning.

“Over the weekend, this demand for protection has evaporated as the market now favours calls at all tenors — a theme that accelerated overnight,” Wintermute said.

What drove the rally?

The rally comes on the back of Bitcoin dipping 9.8% to $64,500 last week.

“The market remains firmly in buy-the-dip territory, as the move lower early last week has faded aggressively to the upside,” Wintermute said, adding it “represents a clear switch in sentiment.”

To buy the dip means that a trader buys an asset at a bargain when it drops, hoping that the slump is just a short-term blip and that the price will soon surge again.

So what drove the surge?

“Despite a rise in Bitcoin’s price over the weekend, funding rates stayed low, and open interest remained relatively unchanged,” Wintermute said in a separate note on Monday.

“This indicates that the recent activity in Bitcoin may have been primarily driven by spot market purchases rather than leverage-based speculation.”

Funding rates for perpetual contracts had remained low amid Bitcoin’s rise, “suggesting a cooling off in the market,” the firm said.

Funding rates are fees paid or received by traders to keep their leveraged positions open. They act as a balance mechanism based on market sentiment and leverage.

Crypto market movers

• Bitcoin is down 2% and trading at about $70,740.
• Ethereum is down 0.34% and trading at about 3,630.

What we’re reading

• Binance will finally establish a global HQ as regulatory pressure mounts, chief Richard Teng says — DL News.
• 3 Big Things To Watch This Week — Milk Road.
• Base TVL Hits $4 Billion as Transactions Per Second Surpass Ethereum — Unchained.
• FTX Bankruptcy Estate Sells Majority Of $2.6 Billion Solana Token Hoard — Milk Road.
• How Binance angered Nigerian authorities and lost two executives to custody: A timeline — DL News.

Sebastian Sinclair is a markets correspondent for DL News. Have a tip? Contact Seb at sebastian@dlnews.com.