- Bitwise’s Matt Hougan says Bitcoin is near a six-month bottom with limited downside.
- The firm got its $200,000 target right but the timing was wrong, Hougan said.
- Record ETF outflows and digital asset treasury selling have driven the selloff.
Bitcoin’s brutal selloff may be nearly over.
That’s the message from Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, who told investors that Bitcoin price is somewhere near the bottom of a six-month correction with “not much downside left.”
“We’re in this uncomfortable bear market,” Hougan said in a December 3 panel with investors. “We’re in a six-month bottom phase, and somewhere in that period we’re close to the bottom.”
Bitcoin was trading around $92,000 on Thursday, down more than 25% from its October highs above $120,000.
Even so, Bitwise has left its $200,000 Bitcoin target intact, although it admits the timing was off. The company, said Hougan, underestimated the amount of selling that would take place when the cryptocurrency dipped to $100,000, along with how much investors still believe — and fear — the four-year cycle narrative.
Record outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded products combined with digital asset treasuries that have exhausted their buying power have, for the most part, driven the downfall.
Wrong dates
Just as 2025 rolled in, Bitwise made a lofty prediction: Bitcoin would top $200,000 before the year was out.
The firm got the direction right but sorely missed the timing, according to Hougan.
Two factors derailed the timeline.
First, selling pressure at $100,000 exceeded expectations. Round numbers create psychological resistance, triggering profit-taking from earlier buyers, the executive said. Moreover, the spike from the previous high of $74,000 to this cycle’s record of $126,000 went nearly without obstacles.
At some point, investors were going to take profit.
Second, fear surrounding Bitcoin’s four-year boom-bust cycle dominated investor sentiment. Gauging from previous cycles, traders worried that 2025 would mark a top, which became a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Hougan had already predicted that the four-year cycle was over, however.
“The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker,” Hougan said back in July. “The halving is half as important every four years, the interest rate cycle is positive for crypto, and blow-up risk has attenuated.”
Setup remains compelling
Despite the selloff, Hougan sees several catalysts that could drive Bitcoin higher.
Vanguard is allowing Bitcoin ETFs on its platform, giving 8 million clients access to the cryptocurrency. Bank of America is allowing advisors to recommend Bitcoin ETFs, unlocking a $3.5 trillion asset pool.
And the Fed is ending quantitative tightening in December, improving liquidity conditions, which tends to favour risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
“The end of year could be very good,” Hougan said. “There’s not much downside left.”
Pedro Solimano is DL News’ Buenos Aires-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at psolimano@dlnews.com.
