- Large holders, or whales, have sold 147,000 Bitcoin since August.
- That translates to over $16 billion.
- "It's not a good signal for the market," said Bitwise's André Dragosch.
Things don’t bode well for Bitcoin.
Over the past month, Bitcoin whales, the term for entities that hold upwards of 1,000 Bitcoin, have sold over $16 billion worth of coins. The selling is happening at the fastest monthly rate since Bitcoin’s last halving event, in 2024.
“These whale sellings are generally not a good signal for the market especially if these sales come from long-term holders of bitcoin,” André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, told DL News.
Why? History, said Dragosch. “Markets tend to react negatively to both whale selling and long-term holder selling.”
Bitcoin’s biggest holders are losing their grip.
In his September 23 newsletter, Bitcoin analyst James Check flagged roughly $2 billion a day of “revived supply,” or coins that long sat dormant and are now moving back into circulation.
That kind of activity often signals that large, seasoned, and committed Bitcoin investors are moving capital elsewhere — even if they haven’t lost faith in Bitcoin itself.
“It doesn’t look like ‘I lost conviction in Bitcoin, I’m getting out’ sell-side,” Check wrote. This means that “they will rotate back when the market starts moving again.”
Despite the uptick in selling, Bitcoin remains resilient. The top crypto trades at about $113,500, up 2% in the past month, and 80% in the past year.
Two theories
For Dragosch, there’s two main theories behind the sell-off.
“One is that they might be using Bitcoin to fund treasury companies,” he told DL News.
Indeed, Bitcoin treasury companies have surged this year. What began in August 2020 as a capital markets gimmick from Michael Saylor has quickly transformed into a multi billion-dollar sector.
As of Wednesday, 194 public companies held Bitcoin on their balance sheet, up from 170 a month ago, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net. The top 100 public firms hold a staggering 1.03 million Bitcoin worth about $116 billion.
These firms need loads of capital to keep adding Bitcoin or to finance mergers, and selling into the market can provide that funding.
Another theory, said Dragosch, is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.
Four-year cycle
Since Bitcoin was released in 2009, its price has followed a pattern.
Every four years, a halving cuts the new supply of coins in half, kicking off a bull run. Then, when the price gets too foamy and sentiment a tad too excited, traders take profit and the price plunges into a bear market.
Now, some say that the playbook is dead. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, for instance, said in July the forces that have created prior four-year cycles are now weaker. That includes a lesser effect from the halving, and an interest rate cycle that is more positive for crypto.
But the halving’s waning influence is not a foregone conclusion just yet. Especially for a cohort of Bitcoin investors that has lived through multiple boom-bust cycles and are accustomed to the familiarity of Bitcoin’s price pattern from years past.
Whales “might believe in the four-year halving cycle and therefore expect that Bitcoin has reached its cycle top already,” said Dragosch.
Pedro Solimano is DL News’ Buenos Aires-based markets correspondent. Got at a tip? Email him at psolimano@dlnews.com.
