- A lack of volatility in the crypto market is putting off retail traders.
- That's preventing alternative crypto assets from rallying, as they did in previous bull markets.
- Some traders have moved to equities for high risk, high reward bets.
The crypto market has become too boring — and that’s why there hasn’t been an alt season.
Saad Ahmed, head of APAC at crypto exchange Gemini, made that argument, saying his exchange hadn’t seen the same levels of activity from retail traders as previous crypto bull markets.
“There would be traders who were getting crazy gains during those times, but we haven’t seen that.” Ahmed told DL News. “A lot of the retail frenzy was driven by that characteristic of the market and that’s been taken out.”
Previous crypto bull markets were defined by extreme volatility. Bitcoin was usually the first asset to rally, often jumping several hundred percent in a matter of weeks.
Traders who hit it big often rotated profits into smaller crypto assets like Ethereum and Solana, as they travelled up the risk curve hunting for higher returns. This caused Bitcoin’s dominance to fall and alternative cryptocurrencies to outperform, a market phenomenon usually referred to as alt season.
Yet this time, Ahmed said, the market and its participants have changed. Crypto trading is increasingly dominated by institutions who invest on longer time scales and are less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations.
The result? Alternative crypto assets like Ethereum and Solana have lagged Bitcoin’s performance. Overall, the crypto market has become less volatile than it used to be — and perhaps even boring for traders who cut their teeth during the heady days of previous bull markets.
And when the market is boring, those risk tolerant trades don’t stick around.
‘Terrible risk-reward ratio’
Ahmed isn’t the only one to point out the impact of a lack of retail trader engagement and muted volatility.
“Retail investors trading altcoins face a terrible risk-reward ratio,” Gracy Chen, CEO of crypto exchange Bitget, said following the crypto market’s October 10 flash crash. “Let’s be real — the alt season will not come in 2025 or 26.”
Many of the headwinds facing the altcoin market aren’t new.
Even as Bitcoin breached the pivotal $100,000 mark last year, several analysts noted retail traders were sitting out the rally.
As 2025 comes to a close with Bitcoin trading lower than at the year’s start, the same cohort is still engaging at far lower levels than in previous bull markets.
At the same time, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market’s volatility is falling.
At several points this year, Bitcoin became less volatile than the stock market, something that was previously unprecedented.
Moving to DATs
If risk-tolerant retail traders aren’t eying crypto for moonshot bets, then where are they going?
Ahmed says some of that activity has found its way into the traditional equities market through digital asset treasuries, or DATs, publicly traded firms whose raison d’etre is to buy up crypto, often using leverage to juice returns.
Such firms have over the past year replicated some of the volatility typical of high-risk crypto bets.
Cantor Equity Partners, a special acquisition company that recently merged to form Twenty One, a Bitcoin treasury firm, saw its stock rally some 500% on that news between late April and early May.
Sharplink Gaming, an online casino marketing company turned crypto treasury firm, jumped over 3,800% in May when it revealed its Ethereum buying strategy.
And to be sure, the lack of retail traders in the crypto market isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
Interest in crypto assets is still the highest it has ever been judging by trading volumes and prices. It’s just that a much bigger portion of that activity is now coming from institutional investors.
And it doesn’t mean retail traders won’t return — eventually. But while the group of traders is absent, expect less volatility.
Tim Craig is DL News’ Edinburgh-based DeFi Correspondent. Reach out with tips at tim@dlnews.com.