- Standard Chartered predicts a fresh all-time high next week.
- Bitcoin could hit $135,000 soon after.
- The US government shutdown is creating favourable conditions for a price rally.
Bitcoin is ready to tear through its all-time high — and the US government shutdown is the reason why.
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets strategy at UK-bank Standard Chartered, predicts Bitcoin will print a fresh all-time high next week. Shortly thereafter, the top crypto should surge to $135,000, said Kendrick.
The catalyst? A deepening political crisis in Washington that’s forcing investors to hedge against US government risk while the Federal Reserve mulls over interest rate cuts yet again.
“It is now ready and that Bitcoin will print a fresh all-time-high next week,” Kendrick wrote in a note to investors on Thursday. “The shutdown matters this time.”
Bitcoin currently trades at about $120,500, up 10% in the past week, and sits just 3% below its record price.
Government shutdown
For the 22nd time since 1974, this week the US government had to shutter its doors because it couldn’t find common ground among lawmakers to determine the national budget.
The key difference from past shutdowns, said Kendrick, is Bitcoin’s evolving role as a hedge against US government dysfunction.
During the previous Trump shutdown — which ran from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019 — Bitcoin was in a different place, Kendrick explained.
Back then, the shutdown “did little” to move the needle on price.
But in 2025 Bitcoin has traded alongside US government risk metrics, particularly the US Treasury term premium, which measures the extra yield investors demand to hold long-term government bonds, Kendrick noted.
Meanwhile, the shutdown is also delaying key economic data releases for which the Fed relies on for policy decisions.
Agencies like the Bureau of Labour Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis have suspended data collection, meaning crucial reports like monthly jobs and inflation won’t be published until funding is restored.
Interest rate cut
Without official data, markets are leaning on private employment gauges like ADP, which now shows essentially zero net job creation, according to Coinbase analysts David Duong and Colin Basco.
“Shutdown-driven data uncertainty plus a stall in private hiring raises optimism for a less restrictive Fed policy path,” the analysts wrote in their October market outlook.
Rate markets have already priced in that shift, wrote Duong and Basco. Fed fund futures now show an 87% chance of two 25 basis point cuts by year-end, with the target range drifting toward 3.50-3.75% by December.
Today, interest rates are at 4%.
Meanwhile, the dollar is weakening and gold is hitting new all-time highs — signs of easing real-rate expectations that typically benefit Bitcoin.
“This combination loosens USD financial conditions and reduces cash-yield competition for risk assets, which should benefit crypto,” wrote Duong and Basco.
Altcoins await
To be sure, the shutdown isn’t all upside for crypto.
In fact, October was supposed to be the defining moment for altcoin exchange-traded funds. The Securities and Exchange Commision is sitting on a stack of altcoin ETF applications, including products tied to Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin. But the government shutdown is now threatening to throw a spanner into the SEC’s approval process.
“ETF Cryptober might be on hold for a bit,” Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute and President of the ETF Store, said on X.
A long shutdown “would definitely impact the launch of new spot crypto ETFs.”
Pedro Solimano is DL News’ Buenos Aires-based markets correspondent. Got at a tip? Email him at psolimano@dlnews.com.
