- Mounting urgency around quantum tech is forcing crypto networks to evolve, analysts say.
- Much of quantum computing is currently theoretical.
- Still, many at the top of global finance are concerned about the implications for Bitcoin.
Quantum computing is not a death sentence for Bitcoin — it's just part of a natural tech upgrade cycle, analysts say.
Mounting urgency around quantum breakthroughs is forcing cryptocurrency networks to evolve, catalysing coordination across tech giants, regulators, and blockchain developers, according to brokerage firm Bernstein.
“The risk is neither existential, nor novel, and also not limited to crypto,” analyst Gautam Chhugani and his three Bernstein colleagues said in an investor note shared with DL News.
Their calming message comes as the conversation around quantum computing has gained a sense of urgency.
In March, Google rattled the crypto community with a new report that warned that quantum computers could break through the cryptography that underlines Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies in just nine minutes.
The tech giant also committed to migrating most of its authentication and digital signature systems to post-quantum cryptography by 2029, citing faster-than-expected progress in quantum hardware and error correction.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin contributors are advancing proposals such as BIP360 to address signature vulnerabilities before they materialise. The Ethereum Foundation has published its own four-part roadmap to upgrade its $260 billion network by the same date.
“The challenge is no longer ‘a decade away’ as thought earlier,” the Bernstein analysts said.
Quantum?
Quantum computing is a new type of technology that uses qubits, which can be both 0 and 1 at the same time, instead of normal bits that are just 0 or 1.
This lets quantum computers solve problems much faster, including breaking common encryption like RSA and elliptic curve, which today’s cryptographic systems rely on.
Normal computers try one combination at a time to crack a lock, while quantum computers can try many at once — that makes them a potential threat to systems like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s risk from quantum computing is now being taken seriously at the top of global finance. UBS chief executive Sergio Ermotti is the latest senior figure to raise concerns.
“The potential effect of quantum computing on the safety of cryptocurrencies still needs to be proved,” he said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
He joins a growing list of major voices, including Ray Dalio, BlackRock, and Christopher Wood who have sounded the alarm.
Wood recently removed Bitcoin from his long-term pension portfolio, warning that the idea of it as a safe store of value may not be as strong as once thought.
“Users’ assets are safe today,” Michael Heinrich, CEO of the blockchain and AI firm 0G Labs, told DL News in March. “But the industry needs to wake up. The danger isn’t quantum computers now. It’s the ones coming in 2035 when half the industry still hasn’t upgraded.”
Research from Chaincode Labs suggests that between 20% and 50% of all Bitcoin could be vulnerable in such a scenario — worth roughly $400 billion to $900 billion.
That has sparked debate among developers about how to protect the network, and how quickly they need to act as the technology improves.
Others, like Rodolfo Novak, CEO of Bitcoin security firm Coinkite, suggest that, while there is reason to be concerned, many of the apocalyptic headlines are overblown.
“Both the ‘Bitcoin is doomed!’ crowd and the ‘Nothing to see here!’ crowd are wrong, in ways that are equally unhelpful,” he posted on X on April 6.
“The truth requires holding two ideas simultaneously: (1) there is no imminent quantum threat to your Bitcoin — and the threat may be much further away than the headlines suggest, and (2) the Bitcoin community should be preparing anyway, because the upgrade process itself takes years.”
Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at lance@dlnews.com
