- President Donald Trump’s Venezuela policies could benefit Bitcoin, Arthur Hayes argues.
- The BitMEX co-founder says cheap credit will help.
- Hayes is known for his optimistic crypto price predictions.
Donald Trump’s capture of Nicolas Maduro will fuel Bitcoin’s price to surge, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
His argument? That the US will use the raid to seize Venezuela’s oil reserves — or at least be seen to do so — which will keep US inflation down as the Federal Reserve keeps printing money.
“As the amount of dollars expands, the price of Bitcoin and certain cryptos will skyrocket,” Hayes wrote in a Tuesday blog.
"Suavemente" is an essay to explains why Pax Americana's colonisation of Venezuela for its oil means it's time for $BTC to pump!https://t.co/uU4oQcT6FT pic.twitter.com/XgmRGgoYN0
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 6, 2026
While Hayes’ latest missive didn’t provide a prediction on how high Bitcoin’s price will surge, he said in December that he expects US monetary policies to trigger a rally that will catapult the price to $200,000 by March.
The Maelstrom chief investment officer made his latest prediction days after the US attacked Venezuela and captured the Latin American country’s president.
Following the raid, US President Trump and other US officials have said that they plan to use the military to coerce the Venezuelan leadership to let American oil companies back into the country.
If successful, the scheme will help Trump and the Republican party in the midterms in November as well as in the presidential election in 2028.
Hayes is not alone in saying that the Venezuelan intervention will bolster Bitcoin’s price. On Sunday, digital asset brokerage BlockByte offered a similar prediction that lower oil prices will pump the top crypto’s price.
Two goals
Hayes’ thesis is simple: the Trump administration needs to keep printing money and, simultaneously, keep inflation down to make the electorate feel richer — thus ensuring a Republican victory in 2026 and in 2028.
“The plebes can easily derail the party if a rise in inflation accompanies a rise in nominal GDP,” Hayes said.
The Federal Reserve is likely to keep printing money, Hayes said. Again, he didn’t provide much detail about that in the January 6 blog, but in December Hayes pointed towards the central bank’s plan to buy $40 billion in government debt as an example of this.
The other leg of the thesis is Trump’s goal to keep inflation down. That’s where the oil comes in.
“The key [inflation] metric for Americans is the price of gasoline, as there is scant usable, affordable public transportation available for most folks,” Hayes wrote. “You cannot exist as a proletariat worker in America without a set of wheels, unfortunately. And therefore, Trump and his lieutenants colonised Venezuela for its oil.”
More oil supply equates to lower oil prices, which will help bring down energy inflation.
Long-time argument
Hayes has an impressive track-record when it comes to forecasting crypto prices.
But, to be sure, it is not without its blemishes. For instance, at the beginning of 2025, Hayes argued that US monetary policy would push Bitcoin to $200,000 by the end of the year.
And in the first quarter of 2025, it looked like things were going well for him. Bitcoin hit a new record high on the back of Trump’s inauguration as the crypto industry celebrated having a champion in the White House.
Then Trump triggered a global trade war, which saw the US raise tariffs against its biggest trading partners. Bitcoin tanked amidst the market uncertainty.
Hayes stuck to his guns, but lowered his end-of-year target to $150,000. However, Bitcoin would end the year trading around at $87,000.
Mathew Di Salvo is a news correspondent with DL News. Got a tip? Email at mdisalvo@dlnews.com.
