- Bitcoin has retraced 10% from its recent all-time high
- Market data points to aggressive selling.
- Bitcoin’s shot at $140,000 this year is a coin toss, analysts say.
Two weeks on from setting a new all-time high above $124,000, Bitcoin has slipped into a funk that has some analysts fretting over its price prospects this year.
Analysts at 10x Research warn that Bitcoin reaching $200,000 this year is “extremely unlikely,” despite it being a popular price target given by the likes of Arthur Hayes, and analysts at Bernstein, Bitwise, and Standard Chartered.
Instead, the 10x Research analysts say the chances that Bitcoin will reach $140,000 are barely better than a coin toss. They’ve calculated a 54% chance of the price reaching that target before the end of the year. That’s only a 27% uptick from the current $110,000 price.
What’s behind the muted expectations? The analysts blamed a slowdown in inflows, massive selloff from miners, and seasonal patterns that make the third quarter Bitcoin’s worst-performing time of the year.
And there’s market data that indicates a near-term price decline for Bitcoin.
Data from CryptoQuant’s ratio of buyers to sellers for Bitcoin has tumbled to its lowest level since 2018.
The collapse in the ratio is a major red flag for Bitcoin. It indicates aggressive selling is the dominant force on crypto exchanges, which sets up an imbalance that could sharpen price declines if the selling pressure accelerates.
While Bitcoin is still in a bullish cycle, the data points to a “mismatch between the price and sentiment,” according to CryptoQuant analysts who say there is a strong possibility of volatile price movements in the short term.
The same sentiment is only playing out on Polymarket, the crypto-backed betting platform.
The $125,000 option is the most popular bet for the price Bitcoin will reach in 2025. Users on the platform have given that option a 71% chance, with $130,000 being the next most-popular choice.
Meanwhile, the $200,000 price option only has a 5% chance of happening, according to betting figures on the platform.
Osato Avan-Nomayo is our Nigeria-based DeFi correspondent. He covers DeFi and tech. Got a tip? .Please contact him at osato@dlnews.com.
