- CME will launch XRP futures and micro futures contracts.
- The move could boost XRP’s chances of landing a spot ETF.
- Polymarket bettors now give XRP ETF approval an 83% chance.
Since the Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of spot exchange-traded funds for Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2024, the scramble for crypto’s third-place ETF slot has been intense.
And while nothing is set in stone, XRP just got a quiet boost to its regulatory credibility.
On Monday, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange will launch XRP Futures and Micro XRP Futures, marking the first time the derivatives giant has offered XRP-linked contracts.
These allow traders to speculate on XRP’s price without holding the token itself — a key difference from spot ETFs, which are backed directly by the underlying asset and seen as the holy grail for mainstream adoption.
“Interest in XRP has steadily increased,” noted CME’s Global Head of Cryptocurrency Products, Giovanni Vicioso, adding that market participants are increasingly looking to “regulated derivatives products across a wider range of tokens.”
That framing matters because regulated futures markets are seen as a key ingredient in securing spot ETF approval.
Quest for a spot ETF
In a 2023 ruling, the DC Circuit Court found the SEC acted “arbitrarily and capriciously” when it rejected Grayscale’s bid to convert its Bitcoin trust into a spot ETF, even after approving similar futures-based products.
The court said that if a token has a futures market on CME, it’s difficult to justify blocking a spot ETF using the same price inputs.
That’s exactly the position XRP is in now.
The launch of XRP futures on CME may help give issuers the regulatory foundation they need to push a spot product over the finish line.
To be sure, it’s unclear whether the SEC under new chair Paul Atkins will be less stringent in what cryptocurrencies must have in place to be eligible for ETFs, given that Atkins is a known crypto supporter, whereas former head Gary Gensler was a devout crypto sceptic.
Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, and Bitwise are just a few of the issuers vying to launch spot XRP ETFs.
Polymarket bettors are signalling confidence. The chances of an XRP ETF being approved by the end of 2025 have climbed to 83%, just shy of an all-time high.
In April, Standard Chartered’s top crypto analyst, Geoff Kendrick, said he expected the SEC to approve spot XRP ETFs between July and September this year.
Getting crowded
XRP isn’t alone in this quest, however. Everything from Cardano and Litecoin to memecoins like Dogecoin and Melania are jockeying for approval.
At least 72 crypto ETFs are sitting on the SEC’s desk, according to Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart.
But out of all of them, it’s Solana that has arguably the biggest jump on XRP. CME and Coinbase already launched similar Solana futures products earlier this year.
More than $12 million in SOL contracts traded on day one on CME, and at least five Solana ETF applications are now pending with the SEC.
But while that may sound like a lot, it’s a rounding error next to the $8 billion wave some analysts believe a spot XRP ETF could unleash.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin has lost 0.9% of its value in the past 24 hours and is trading at $103,050.
- Ethereum is down 3.8% in the same period to $2,410.
What we’re reading
- UK crypto firms told to report every user and transaction or risk stiff penalties ― DL News
- Coinbase Is Being Extorted. What Does That Mean for Its Stock? ― Unchained
- French crypto entrepreneurs promised extra security after violent kidnapping attempts — Politico
- What you missed this week — Milk Road
- Tornado Cash defence says prosecutors misled court on crypto mixer laws ― DL News
Kyle Baird is DL News’ Weekend Editor. Got a tip? Email at kbaird@dlnews.com.
