- Nigel Farage’s political aide lost $655,000 betting on the Iran strikes last weekend.
- War markets have renewed scrutiny of prediction markets.
- “Posh George” Cottrell won $4.4 million betting on Trump’s election win in 2024.
George Cottrell may have beaten the odds betting on Trump in 2024, but his luck appears to have run out.
The 32-year-old political aide to Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK right-wing Reform Party, appears to have lost approximately $655,000 incorrectly betting on when the US would strike Iran.
The aide, nicknamed “Posh George” due to his aristocratic background, traded under the username GCottrell93 and placed a series of bets in this market — and did manage to win $107,000 by betting that the US would not strike on February 27.
Crypto investigator ZachXBT has previously linked the account to Cottrell.
However, his biggest loss, worth $550,000, was betting “no” on whether the US would attack on February 28, according to Polymarket data and first reported by The Telegraph. He lost another $165,000 across three other wagers, inaccurately betting on other dates, too.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket let users wager money on the outcomes of political, sporting, or financial events.
In this case, Polymarket launched a market that enabled users to speculate on when the US military would attack Iran.
Users could bet on “yes” or “no” for a variety of dates.
After it was clear that the US bombed Iran on February 28, the market closed and paid out those who accurately bet on the day’s violent strikes.
All eyes on prediction markets
The multi-million-dollar war markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest prediction markets, have drawn fresh scrutiny from lawmakers.
Polymarkets wager on the ouster of Iranian leaders saw more than $529 million in volume.
Six specific users, however, stood out.
Just hours before the strike, analytics firm Bubblemaps showed six brand-new accounts emerge and rake in $1.2 million accurately betting on the strikes on February 28.
“It’s insane this is legal,” Democrat Senator Chris Murphy said on Sunday. “People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.”
A White House spokesperson denied that anyone close to US President Donald Trump was behind the trades, according to NPR.
GCottrell93
Betting on Polymarket hasn’t been a complete loss for Cottrell.
Indeed, the author of the book “How to Launder Money” has bagged $3.4 million in profits — after accounting for losses — across 23 predictions.
His biggest win came from betting on the presidential election winner in 2024, where he bagged $4.4 million wagering on Trump.
After inaccurately betting on the Iran strikes, his next biggest loss was betting that the sitting UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, would be ousted on February 28, 2026.
He lost nearly $125,000 on the wager.
The Reform Party didn’t immediately return a request for comment.
Liam Kelly is DL News’ Berlin-based DeFi correspondent. Have a tip? Get in touch at liam@dlnews.com.
