- Bitcoin tends to rise on lower interest rates.
- New jobs data may sway FOMC members, analyst says.
- It comes as a US government shutdown looms.
Will the US Federal Reserve cut rates in October?
Wall Street and crypto traders are asking that question as a tsunami of official data is set to be unleashed this week.
The data “could influence FOMC members’ views on whether interest rates should be cut again before year-end,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, wrote in a note to investors on Sunday.
Yardeni added that while their views may be influenced, he remained uncertain if the data will “increase the odds of another Federal Reserve rate cut anytime soon.”
The Federal Open Market Committee decides whether or not interest rates are cut.
Markets are already leaning toward a cut in October. Prediction platform Polymarket shows an 81% chance of a 0.25% cut, while CME’s FedWatch tool puts the odds at 89%.
For crypto, the stakes are high. Lower interest rates stoke risk appetite, drive exchange-traded fund inflows, and often mark the beginning of bullish phases for Bitcoin and other tokens.
A pause on the other hand, could keep digital assets rangebound as traders wait for clarity.
Yardeni pointed to four key reports that will be released this week that could influence the FOMC members.
JOLTS
First out of the gate, we’ve got the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. As the name suggests, the report tracks how many positions employers are looking to fill.
Plenty of openings suggest businesses still need workers, pointing to a resilient labor market and less reason for rate cut relief. Fewer openings would hint that hiring demand is fading, which could support a cut.
Yardeni said he expects the JOLTS to confirm that labour market conditions remained solid in August.
Consumer confidence
Also expected to be released on Tuesday, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index survey measures how optimistic households feel about jobs and spending.
Rising confidence signals that consumers are still fuelling growth — which could argue against more cuts. If confidence slips, the Fed may lean towards cutting.
PMI surveys
The Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, is a gauge of how businesses see conditions.
A score above 50 means the economy is expanding; below 50 signals contraction.
Yardeni’s bet is that the data won’t be weak enough to force another cut this year.
Employment data
This is the big one.
The monthly US jobs report tracks how many positions the economy added, how many people are unemployed, and how quickly wages are rising.
“Monthly employment reports have been suspenseful enough in recent months, but the real drama surrounding September’s hotly anticipated figures is whether they will even be released on Friday,” Yardeni said. “They won’t be if the government shuts down on October 1 amid partisan bickering.”
He referred to the standoff between the Trump Administration and Democrats in Congress over a funding agreement for the federal government. The government will shut down if the two parties fail to reach a deal by Wednesday, at the start of the new fiscal year.
Economists expect 75,000 new jobs added in September and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. The US economy has averaged roughly 200,000 monthly job gains over the past decade, so 75,000 would be a significant slowdown. If hiring is weaker than expected, the Fed faces pressure to cut rates to protect growth.
But if the report proves surprisingly positive and points to a climb in wags, then officials could feel comfortable waiting longer before slashing rates.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is up 2.5% over the past 24 hours to trade at $112,144.
- Ethereum is up 3.4% over the past 24 hours, trading at $4,131.
What we’re reading
- DAO whales an obstacle to voting privacy, Cornell researchers say — DL News
- Why higher inflation is a gift to crypto— DL News
- Bitwise Files to Launch Spot HYPE ETF — Unchained
- Will AI Manage Your Crypto Better Than You? w/ Sandy Kaul— Milk Road
- What is mNAV? How to calculate and trade it? Your DefiLlama guide to the metric for digital asset treasuries— DL News
Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email at lance@dlnews.com.
