XRP ETF seen to drive price to $5 by year-end but success hinges on demand

XRP ETF seen to drive price to $5 by year-end but success hinges on demand
Markets
Illustration: Gwen P; Source: Shutterstock.
  • Analysts eye new XRP record.
  • New ETFs may help magnify demand.
  • The SEC is making it easier to launch crypto ETFs.

XRP may be about to go gangbusters.

That’s according to Altan Tutar, CEO of liquidity marketplace MoreMarkets, who said the Ripple-linked cryptocurrency could surge by 73% by year end — marking a new all-time high.

He told DL News that demand around XRP on the back of newly launched altcoin exchange-traded funds will fuel a rally for the Ripple-linked cryptocurrency.

“Increased demand for these alts will undoubtedly drive up their price,” Altan Tutar, CEO of liquidity marketplace MoreMarkets, told DL News.

He noted that the crypto reclaimed its $3 price ahead of Rex-Osprey launching its new XRP ETF earlier in September. Rex-Osprey simultaneously launched a Dogecoin ETF. Both funds give spot exposure to the underlying digital assets.

Yet, Tutar’s cautious bullishness comes as the crypto market overall has failed to rally on the back of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and the $55 million debuts of the XRP and Dogecoin ETFs.

Structural demand

To be sure, XRP’s chances of hitting a new high hinges on whether there is enough demand for the altcoin.

Angie Malltezi, chief operating officer at blockchain infrastructure firm Altius Labs, warned that despite the splashy start for the new ETFs, institutional appetite “remains limited” for these products.

“The ETF wrapper by itself does not generate structural demand; it only magnifies the demand that already exists in the underlying market,” Malltezi told DL News.

He noted that Bitcoin sees between $25 and $30 billion in daily spot volume, while XRP and Doge together see well under $1 billion.

That mismatch highlights an uphill climb that altcoin ETFs face. Without deep derivatives markets, balance-sheet adoption, or popular narratives, these funds are unlikely to replicate the scale of the top two crypto assets.

To further complicate the picture, the Rex-Osprey XRP and Dogecoin ETFs aren’t pure spot ETFs akin to the Bitcoin and Ethereum products that were launched last year.

Instead, the Rex-Osprey funds were launched by leveraging the Investment Company Act of 1940. This regulatory workaround allows issuers to launch ETFs without waiting on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s more rigorous approval process under the 1933 Securities Act.

The tradeoff? Tight marketing restrictions and less distribution strength than their pureblood Bitcoin and Ethereum counterparts.

For the launch of pure spot altcoin ETFs, investors have to wait until October when the SEC has to make a final decision to approve or reject a wave of altcoin ETF applications.

Regulatory boost

At the same time, Paul Atkins, the new SEC chair, has rolled out a fast-track process for crypto ETF approvals.

The programme lets crypto ETFs launch in 75 days instead of their current 240-day slog through the regulatory mud. Any fund that meets basic criteria, like having a futures contract on a regulated US exchange, gets approval.

“The approval of new crypto ETFs marks a widening of investment products and an important step toward greater regulatory clarity,” Jianing Wu, an analyst at Galaxy Research, told DL News. “With the SEC’s fast-track programme now in place, the industry can expect a quicker pipeline of ETF filings, particularly altcoin products.”

She stressed that altcoin ETF inflows “will depend heavily on market sentiment.” Still, her expectations are tempered.

Wu pointed out that US spot Bitcoin ETFs gathered flows equivalent to 0.8% of the cryptocurrency’s market value in their first three months, while Ethereum ETFs actually saw net outflows in the same period.

By contrast, Canadian Solana ETFs have attracted about $298 million since April — roughly 0.2% of market cap.

“Against this backdrop, we expect XRP and Dogecoin ETFs to see more modest inflows given their position further down the risk curve,” Wu said.

Lucas Tcheyan, also at Galaxy, said the launches highlight how fast the crypto market structure is evolving.

“What once looked like a multi-year path to ETF approval is now less than a year,” he said, noting that treasury companies deploying into DeFi may signal future ETF demand.

Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email at lance@dlnews.com.

Related Topics